The heat pump industry is ushering in continuous development
The heat pump industry is ushering in continuous development. The European energy crisis has made heat pumps more important than ever
The advantages of heat pumps are gradually being valued, and China has become one of the world's major heat pump markets
A heat pump is a clean and efficient heat transfer device. Its main applications include heating (similar to an air conditioner), hot water (similar to a water heater) and drying (applied to agricultural grain drying, etc.). Heat pumps have the advantages of more energy saving, better user experience, wider application range, and lower operating costs. The limitations are mainly reflected in the high initial purchase and installation costs, low heating efficiency at low temperatures, and large equipment volume.
Heat pump classification methods and characteristics
According to the "China Heat Pump Industry Development Trend Analysis and Future Investment Research Report (2023-2030)" released by Guanyan Report.com, the heat pump theory first originated from the French scientist Carnot in the early 19th century. In 1927-1928, physicist Haldane had broken through the air source heat pump heating technology. In the 1930s, heat pumps began to enter the commercial stage, and overseas took the lead in rapid development. In the 1950s, the United States began to mass-produce air-source heat pumps. Since the 1980s, energy-poor Japan began to mass-produce air-source heat pumps. By 2022, China will already be the largest heat pump market in the world.
my country's heat pump industry has developed rapidly, and the domestic market has gradually formed a three-legged pattern
Air source heat pump water heaters were introduced into my country in 2000, but due to high initial investment costs and immature technology, air source heat pump water heaters developed slowly in my country. Until 2007, my country's air source heat pump water heaters accounted for less than 1%, while in Japan during the same period, the ratio has reached 70%. Since 2008, due to the outstanding effect of energy saving and environmental protection, air source heat pumps have begun to receive strong support from national policies. Since 2013, rural areas in northern my country have begun to promote "coal-to-electricity", and a series of policy subsidies have been released accordingly. With policy protection and financial support, the shortcomings of high initial investment costs for heat pumps have been effectively compensated, and heat pumps in my country have developed rapidly. However, due to Coal-to-electricity policy subsidies have gradually declined. After 18 years, the heat pump market has basically remained stable, with a slow growth rate. During the same period, due to the relatively mature development of air conditioners/water heaters, sales have remained basically flat. Driven by the 21-year dual-carbon policy, my country's heat pump market once again ushered in rapid growth.
According to the Heat Pump Professional Committee of the China Energy Conservation Association, my country's air source heat pump heating market is mainly concentrated in North China and East China. The North China region has maintained a proportion of more than 30% in the past two years, and the East China region has maintained a proportion of more than 27% in the past two years and maintained a growth trend. In addition, although the Northeast region currently has a small share of the air source heat pump market, the absolute size of the market has grown significantly under the catalysis of factors such as coal-fired policy restrictions and rising coal prices; Under the policy measures, the market potential can be expected.
Since heating products have the characteristics of both cooling and heating, and have better development potential, they are the most important application market for air source heat pumps in my country. In 2022, heating applications will account for more than 50%.
Although there are hundreds of companies that can engage in the heat pump business in China, in fact, the heat pump industry in China has begun to show the Matthew effect, and the market share continues to concentrate on traditional home appliance leaders and professional heat pump companies. This is mainly due to: (1) outstanding product strength , the giants can better integrate technologies in hot water, heating and other fields under the accumulation of profound experience, and have great advantages in product manufacturing, research and development, and production; (2) The layout of brand channels is complete, which is expected to produce synergies. The channel advantages of enterprises are obvious; (3) The stimulus of the previous "coal-to-electricity" policy to the engineering market is coming to an end, and the growth of the retail market is limited due to the disturbance of the epidemic. Development through diversification is relatively less affected.
In particular, the domestic market share of the three major home appliance giants, namely Haier, Midea and Gree, has continued to increase. Since 2020, the industry CR3 has continued to exceed 30%, and the oligopoly pattern is obvious.
European energy crisis urges countries to introduce heat pump related policies
According to Eurostat, more than 80% of Europe's natural gas is imported, of which more than 41% comes from Russia (2020). Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, affected by the Nord Stream pipeline and extreme high temperature weather, the price of natural gas, which accounts for nearly a quarter of Europe's energy consumption, has risen sharply, accelerating the process of energy transformation in Europe. The use of heat pumps to replace boilers is the key to the energy transformation of European buildings. With the introduction of subsidy policies in various countries, the European heat pump market has accelerated since 2015. In 2022, stimulated by the sharp rise in energy prices and a new round of subsidy policies, it will hit a record high.
In May 22, the European Commission proposed the "REPowerEU" plan and officially passed it in June to accelerate the replacement of fossil energy with renewable energy, achieve energy independence and transition to green. Several actions proposed by the "REPowerEU" plan include: increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the energy structure from 40% to 45% in 2030; doubling the deployment speed of heat pumps, and deploying a total of 10 million units in the next five years. China, Germany, France and other countries have also introduced policies to clarify the future deployment goals of heat pumps, and the long-term high growth of heat pumps is highly certain.
European countries issue heat pump deployment targets
With the technological progress of my country's heat pump products, in addition to the export of low-end heat pumps such as swimming pool heat pumps and heat pump water heaters, my country's heat pump exports have gradually penetrated into heating-type heat pumps. With the rapid expansion of European demand, there is greater pressure on local production capacity and industrial chain supply.
Source: China Heat Pump Industry Development Trend Analysis and Future Investment Research Report (2023-2030)